Sunday, July 22, 2012

Buyers or Sellers

The Marlins wrapped up their short road trip on a low note, dropping the finale to the Pirates and finishing the trip 1-5. To be fair the Pirates and the Cubs have been surging lately but the trip just served as a reminder to the Marlins just how far they have to go. A lack of timely hitting has doomed the Marlins this year and the Marlins brass has to be asking themselves what the next step is going to be. At 11.5 games behind the division leading Washington Nationals and 8 games out of the 2 wild card spots, it would take an amazing run over the next couple of months to have a chance at the playoffs. I for one, would be ok with being sellers at this deadline. There are a couple of reasons why I think it would be a good idea to sell right now.

1. There are not enough sellers right now.

With the addition of the second wild card, 15 teams are less then 8 games away from the playoffs currently. this leaves 9 total teams that are possible sellers, much less then in years past.

There was also a change to the rules this year with compensation from players leaving. In years past, if you traded a player in midseason you still received a compensatory draft pick of equal value for that player leaving. With the new collective bargaining agreement, that player must leave via free agency at the end of the year to receive that draft pick. This is causing teams to rethink the wisdom of trading players midseason. This is precisely why I believe we should. It is a simple case of supply and demand. I think there is less options for teams that are buyers, and many more teams are buyers then usual. I think they can get more value.

2. There are some substantial shortcomings that need to be addressed.

With the new park we are learning that in order to be effective on defense you must have speed in the outfield. I think they are fine in right and center fields, but left field is a struggle with Logan Morrison. He really is a converted first baseman but that conversion has not gone smoothly. His hitting really hasn't made up for his defensive ineffectiveness.

The bullpen also needs some work. The struggles of Heath Bell have been well chronicled and is the most obvious need.

With Carlos Lee in the final year of his contract there is some definite uncertainty at first base. If Gaby Sanchez had performed at the same level as last year, he would not be included in this discussion, but right now Gaby is in triple A trying to regain his swing.

3. The minor league system needs some replenishing

In the last couple of years the Marlins have called up the top talent from their farm system. Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton have all made the transition to the big leagues. By acquiring Carlos Lee, the Marlins gave up two of their more ready prospects. As a matter of fact with only 2 real major league prospects in Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez, they could use a talent infusion that could help them out in the next 2 years.

It might not be a bad idea for the Marlins to look at setting themselves up to make a solid run at the playoffs next year. The best way to get there may be to give up some of the more established pieces of their roster now, in exchange for next year's lineup.

No comments:

Post a Comment